Saturday, February 23, 2008

Econometrics and Its Zero-Sum Game

Hayek writes in Cosmos and Taxis,"There exist orderly structures which are the product of the action of many men but are not the result of human design". Econometrics concerns itself with the measurement and relationship of these components to derive an economic order either a priori or a posteriori.

In order for an econometricist to subscribe to a Cosmos order, they must conceive its reality in a measurable and deducible manner. By stroke of habit in constructing their economic and social worldview through its components, they begin to see the world in Taxis. To the econometricist, they seek to measure the components in order to manipulate and achieve in their mind a desirable economic order.

In the measurement of population behavior, an investigator cannot measure with simultaneous certainty, the movement of a population and its position. By measuring any component's movement, you by nature fix its position. By measuring its position, you by nature fix it's movement. By fixing, one component's movement or position, you by nature fix another component. A Taxis construct contains less dimensions of reality than its larger Cosmos reality. The Taxis reality is true and reasonable, but merely a snapshot of a fixed component measurement of the larger Cosmos reality.

In fixing the economic order, there is a constant in its total value. When one component variable gains, another must lessen. The net sum of the movement or position of its components converges to zero. Therefore, a Taxis reality is by nature a zero-sum economic game.

Implications? Econometricists are slaves to limits. By advising policy makers, they map for government a world that cannot exist larger than what is measured. Thus by nature, society converges to a Taxis order and a zero-sum game.

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